Jubilant Foodworks: Margin Compression, Multi-Brand Diversification Drive Re-Rating
NSE: JUBLFOOD | BSE: 543980 | Sector: Consumer Services / Restaurants | CMP: ₹414 | Market Cap: ₹27,291 Cr
§1 — Business Overview
Jubilant Foodworks Limited (JFL) is the master franchisee of Domino's Pizza in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal, and the master franchisee of Dunkin' Donuts in India, while also operating the proprietary Hong's Kitchen and Popeyes brands. The company is a part of the promoter-led Jubilant Bhartia Group, founded in the 1960s by Shyam Sunder Bhartia and led today by Shri Hari S. Bhartia and Shri Shyam S. Bhartia, both serving as Co-Chairmen. Listed on the NSE and BSE (BSE: 543980) in February 2021, JFL has emerged as one of the largest organised QSR (Quick Service Restaurant) chains in India with a country-wide omni-channel presence spanning domino's, Hong's Kitchen, Dunkin', and Popeyes outlets across domestic and international markets. The registered office is in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, with commissaries, supply chain, and technology infrastructure spread across the country.
Brand Portfolio & Store Network
| Brand | Origin | Master Franchise / Owned | Category | India Stores (Mar 2026) | Avg Daily Sales (₹ '000) | Avg Store Size (sq ft) |
|---|
| Domino's Pizza | USA | Master Franchisee | Pizza QSR | ~3,200 | ~85 | 1,400-1,800 |
| Hong's Kitchen | India | Owned Brand | Indo-Chinese QSR | ~150 | ~45 | 800-1,000 |
| Dunkin' Donuts | USA | Master Franchisee | Coffee & Donuts | ~50 | ~38 | 900-1,200 |
| Popeyes | USA | Master Franchisee | Fried Chicken QSR | ~40 | ~95 | 1,500-2,000 |
| Total Network | — | — | Multi-Brand QSR | ~3,440+ | — | — |
| Geography | Domino's Stores | % of India Network | Tier Mix (T1/T2/T3) | City-Cap Ratio |
|---|
| North India | ~1,050 | ~33% | 35% / 40% / 25% | High penetration |
| South India | ~880 | ~27% | 45% / 35% / 20% | Strong in Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad |
| West India | ~720 | ~22% | 40% / 35% / 25% | Mumbai, Pune, Ahmedabad-led |
| East India | ~450 | ~14% | 30% / 40% / 30% | Kolkata, Bhubaneswar-anchored |
| Sri Lanka / Bangladesh / Nepal | ~100 | ~3% | 70% / 25% / 5% | High-density Colombo and Dhaka |
Leadership & Management
| Name | Designation | Background | Tenure (Years) | Previous Employer |
|---|
| Shri Hari S. Bhartia | Co-Chairman | Promoter, Jubilant Bhartia Group | 30+ | Promoter family |
| Shri Shyam S. Bhartia | Co-Chairman | Promoter, Jubilant Bhartia Group | 30+ | Promoter family |
| Mr. Sameer Khetarpal | CEO & MD | Finance & Strategy Leader | 5+ | GE Capital, EY, KPMG |
| Mr. Ashish Goenka | Group CFO & CEO International | Finance & Treasury | 20+ | Jubilant Group |
| Mr. Sumeet Dhingra | CEO – Domino's Pizza | QSR Operations | 5+ | Jubilant Foodworks |
| Mr. Tarun Bhasin | Chief Operating Officer | Operations & Supply Chain | 15+ | Jubilant Foodworks |
| Mr. Vikrant Khanna | Chief Digital & Technology Officer | Digital Transformation | 5+ | Infosys, MakeMyTrip |
| Mr. Sriram Iyer | Chief Human Resources Officer | HR & Talent | 10+ | Asian Paints, Tata |
Business Verticals
| Vertical | Description | FY26 Revenue Mix (%) | FY26 Op Margin (%) | Strategic Role |
|---|
| Domino's Pizza | Core pizza QSR business | ~88% | ~20% | Cash cow & brand anchor |
| Hong's Kitchen | Owned Indo-Chinese QSR | ~3% | Break-even | Format innovation |
| Dunkin' Donuts | Coffee & Donuts QSR | ~2% | Loss-making | Morning-daypart build |
| Popeyes | Fried Chicken QSR | ~1% | Investment phase | Future growth engine |
| International | Sri Lanka / Bangladesh / Nepal | ~5% | Profitable | Geographic diversification |
| Other (incl Commissary) | Supply chain exports, others | ~1% | Marginal | Support vertical |
Jubilant Bhartia Group Context
| Group Entity | Sector | Listed Status | Promoter Holding | JFL Linkage |
|---|
| Jubilant Foodworks (JUBLFOOD) | QSR / Restaurants | Listed (NSE/BSE) | 40.27% | Subject of this report |
| Jubilant Pharmova | Pharma & CDMO | Listed | Promoter family | Common promoter group |
| Jubilant Ingrevia | Specialty Chemicals | Listed | Promoter family | Common promoter group |
| Jubilant Industries | Agro, Polymers | Unlisted | Promoter family | Group holding entity |
| Jubilant HollisterStier | Sterile injectables | Subsidiary of Pharmova | Indirect | CDMO vertical |
§2 — Latest Quarter Deep Dive (Q4 FY26)
Jubilant Foodworks reported Q4 FY26 (Jan-Mar 2026) consolidated revenue of ₹2,499 Cr, growing 2.9% YoY versus ₹2,429 Cr in Q3 FY26 and ₹2,095 Cr in Q4 FY25. Operating profit came in at ₹485 Cr with OPM at 19%, while net profit stood at ₹82 Cr (EPS: ₹1.21). The quarter was characterised by persistent same-store sales pressure, food cost inflation, and higher depreciation from aggressive store additions, but management signalled margin recovery levers via price increases, delivery fee resets, and store-rationalisation.
Quarterly Trend (Last 13 Quarters)
| Quarter | Sales (₹ Cr) | YoY Growth (%) | Op Profit (₹ Cr) | OPM (%) | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) | Cumulative Stores |
|---|
| Mar 2023 | 1,270 | 18.5% | 218 | 17.2% | 29 | 0.43 | ~1,750 |
| Jun 2023 | 1,335 | 16.2% | 235 | 17.6% | 29 | 0.44 | ~1,800 |
| Sep 2023 | 1,369 | 13.4% | 277 | 20.2% | 97 | 1.47 | ~1,860 |
| Dec 2023 | 1,378 | 9.8% | 280 | 20.3% | 66 | 1.00 | ~1,920 |
| Mar 2024 | 1,574 | 23.9% | 311 | 19.8% | 208 | 3.14 | ~1,990 |
| Jun 2024 | 1,933 | 44.8% | 380 | 19.7% | 58 | 0.85 | ~2,050 |
| Sep 2024 | 1,955 | 42.8% | 396 | 20.3% | 67 | 0.97 | ~2,120 |
| Dec 2024 | 2,151 | 56.1% | 402 | 18.7% | 43 | 0.65 | ~2,200 |
| Mar 2025 | 2,095 | 33.1% | 392 | 18.7% | 49 | 0.73 | ~2,250 |
| Jun 2025 | 2,261 | 17.0% | 438 | 19.4% | 94 | 1.39 | ~2,400 |
| Sep 2025 | 2,340 | 19.7% | 476 | 20.3% | 195 | 2.82 | ~2,650 |
| Dec 2025 | 2,429 | 12.9% | 484 | 19.9% | 73 | 1.07 | ~2,950 |
| Mar 2026 | 2,499 | 19.3% | 485 | 19.4% | 82 | 1.21 | ~3,440 |
Q4 FY26 Sequential Walk
| Metric | Q3 FY26 (₹ Cr) | Q4 FY26 (₹ Cr) | Change (₹ Cr) | Change (%) | Driver |
|---|
| Net Sales | 2,429 | 2,499 | +70 | +2.9% | Network expansion |
| Raw Material | ~640 | ~660 | +20 | +3.1% | Cheese & chicken inflation |
| Personnel | ~430 | ~440 | +10 | +2.3% | New store staffing |
| Rent & Utilities | ~270 | ~278 | +8 | +3.0% | Lease renewals higher |
| Other Expenses | ~605 | ~636 | +31 | +5.1% | Marketing, ad-spend |
| Total Expenses | 1,945 | 2,015 | +70 | +3.6% | — |
| Operating Profit | 484 | 485 | +1 | +0.2% | Margin flat |
| OPM (%) | 19.9% | 19.4% | -50 bps | — | Cost pressure |
| Other Income | -18 | +13 | +31 | — | Treasury gains |
| Interest | 103 | 117 | +14 | +13.6% | Higher borrowings |
| Depreciation | 247 | 269 | +22 | +8.9% | New stores depreciation |
| PBT | 116 | 111 | -5 | -4.3% | Higher D&A |
| Tax | 43 | 29 | -14 | — | Lower ETR |
| Net Profit | 73 | 82 | +9 | +12.3% | Lower tax offset |
Q4 FY26 Operational KPIs
| KPI | Q4 FY25 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | YoY Change | QoQ Change |
|---|
| Domino's Stores | ~2,250 | ~2,950 | ~3,200 | +950 | +250 |
| Net Store Adds | +260 | +500 | +250 | — | — |
| Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) | +5.5% | +2.0% | +1.5% | -400 bps | -50 bps |
| Online Ordering Mix | ~98% | ~98% | ~98% | flat | flat |
| Average Daily Sales (ADS, ₹ '000) | ~92 | ~85 | ~85 | -7.6% | flat |
| Delivery Mix | ~85% | ~83% | ~82% | -300 bps | -100 bps |
| Dine-in Mix | ~15% | ~17% | ~18% | +300 bps | +100 bps |
| Average Ticket Size (₹) | ~480 | ~510 | ~520 | +8.3% | +2.0% |
| App MAUs (mn) | ~14 | ~17 | ~18 | +28.6% | +5.9% |
| Loyalty Members (mn) | ~28 | ~33 | ~35 | +25.0% | +6.1% |
Jubilant Foodworks delivered a 5-year revenue CAGR of 23% — from ₹4,396 Cr in FY22 to ₹9,513 Cr in FY26 — driven by aggressive Domino's store network expansion, channel-mix optimisation, and menu price increases. However, the OPM has compressed from a peak of 25% in FY22 to 20% in FY26 due to cheese inflation, higher delivery costs, and store-rationalisation charges. Net profit has been volatile, with a sharp dip in FY25 (₹217 Cr) caused by one-time impairment and accelerated depreciation from Popeyes / Dunkin' expansion and FAS impairment.
Five-Year P&L Summary (Consolidated)
| Metric (₹ Cr) | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | 5Y CAGR (%) |
|---|
| Net Sales | 4,396 | 5,158 | 5,655 | 8,142 | 9,513 | +21% |
| Total Expenses | 3,290 | 4,022 | 4,496 | 6,560 | 7,625 | +23% |
| Operating Profit | 1,106 | 1,136 | 1,159 | 1,582 | 1,888 | +14% |
| OPM (%) | 25.2% | 22.0% | 20.5% | 19.4% | 19.8% | -540 bps |
| Other Income | 26 | 40 | 211 | 42 | 106 | +42% |
| Interest | 176 | 201 | 288 | 523 | 436 | +25% |
| Depreciation | 393 | 486 | 598 | 807 | 959 | +25% |
| PBT | 563 | 489 | 485 | 294 | 599 | +2% |
| Tax | 145 | 136 | 85 | 77 | 155 | +2% |
| Net Profit | 418 | 353 | 400 | 217 | 444 | +2% |
| NPM (%) | 9.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | -480 bps |
| EPS (₹) | 6.37 | 5.35 | 6.05 | 3.19 | 6.49 | +1% |
| Dividend Payout (%) | 19% | 22% | 20% | 38% | 18% | — |
Five-Year Balance Sheet Summary
| Metric (₹ Cr) | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|
| Equity Capital | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 |
| Reserves & Surplus | 1,813 | 1,906 | 2,039 | 1,971 | 2,160 |
| Total Equity | 1,945 | 2,038 | 2,171 | 2,103 | 2,292 |
| Borrowings | 2,106 | 2,554 | 4,207 | 4,372 | 4,902 |
| Other Liabilities | 731 | 791 | 1,660 | 1,929 | 2,366 |
| Total Liabilities | 4,782 | 5,382 | 8,038 | 8,404 | 9,561 |
| Fixed Assets (Net) | 2,737 | 3,488 | 6,184 | 6,434 | 7,402 |
| CWIP | 47 | 184 | 118 | 255 | 111 |
| Investments | 927 | 822 | 308 | 176 | 199 |
| Other Assets | 1,072 | 888 | 1,428 | 1,538 | 1,848 |
| Total Assets | 4,782 | 5,382 | 8,038 | 8,404 | 9,561 |
| Debt/Equity (x) | 1.08 | 1.25 | 1.94 | 2.08 | 2.14 |
| Book Value / Share (₹) | 29.5 | 30.9 | 32.9 | 31.9 | 34.7 |
Five-Year Cash Flow Summary
| Metric (₹ Cr) | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | 5Y Total |
|---|
| Cash from Operations | 930 | 1,026 | 1,010 | 1,668 | 1,894 | 6,528 |
| Capex | -654 | -595 | -1,285 | -850 | -1,084 | -4,468 |
| Free Cash Flow | 474 | 188 | 162 | 797 | 889 | 2,510 |
| Investments | -410 | +110 | +514 | +132 | -23 | +323 |
| Cash from Investing | -654 | -595 | -1,285 | -850 | -1,084 | -4,468 |
| Cash from Financing | -307 | -426 | +377 | -849 | -780 | -1,985 |
| Net Change in Cash | -31 | +5 | +102 | -32 | +29 | +73 |
| Dividend Paid | -79 | -78 | -80 | -82 | -80 | -399 |
Five-Year Working Capital & Efficiency Ratios
| Ratio | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|
| Debtor Days | 2 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 14 |
| Inventory Days | 59 | 52 | 112 | 65 | 42 |
| Days Payable | 198 | 164 | 251 | 145 | 142 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (days) | -137 | -110 | -122 | -65 | -86 |
| Working Capital Days | -55 | -51 | -66 | -52 | -95 |
| ROCE (%) | 21% | 16% | 11% | 13% | 15% |
| ROE (%) | 22% | 18% | 19% | 10% | 19% |
| Fixed Asset Turnover (x) | 1.61 | 1.48 | 0.92 | 1.27 | 1.29 |
| Total Asset Turnover (x) | 0.92 | 0.96 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.99 |
Store Network & SSSG Evolution
| Year | Domino's Stores (India) | Net Adds | SSSG (%) | ADS (₹ '000) | Online Share (%) | Hong's Kitchen | Dunkin' | Popeyes |
|---|
| FY22 | ~1,500 | +200 | +18.0% | ~95 | ~92% | ~50 | ~30 | ~0 |
| FY23 | ~1,750 | +250 | +13.0% | ~95 | ~94% | ~80 | ~40 | ~5 |
| FY24 | ~1,990 | +240 | +5.0% | ~93 | ~96% | ~110 | ~50 | ~15 |
| FY25 | ~2,250 | +260 | +2.5% | ~92 | ~98% | ~130 | ~50 | ~25 |
| FY26 | ~3,200 | +950 | +3.0% | ~85 | ~98% | ~150 | ~50 | ~40 |
§4 — Industry & Competition
The Indian QSR industry is valued at ~₹60,000 Cr in FY26, growing at a CAGR of 14-16% over FY22-FY26, with the organised chain QSR sub-segment outpacing at 18-20% CAGR. Key growth drivers include rising disposable incomes, urbanisation, nuclear families, digital ordering penetration, and increasing acceptance of Western cuisines. The industry has consolidated post-COVID, with organised chains gaining share from unorganised players. JUBLFOOD, DEVYANI, WESTLIFE (McDonald's), and BURGER KING dominate the organised pizza-burger QSR space; BARBEQUE NATION leads the casual dine-in (CDR) space. The Big Four (Domino's, McDonald's, KFC, Burger King) collectively operate ~4,500+ stores with a combined ₹20,000+ Cr revenue pool.
Indian QSR Industry Sizing
| Segment | FY24 Size (₹ Cr) | FY26E Size (₹ Cr) | CAGR (%) | Organised % | Key Players |
|---|
| Pizza QSR | ~7,500 | ~10,500 | +18% | ~95% | JUBLFOOD, Pizza Hut |
| Burger QSR | ~6,000 | ~8,500 | +19% | ~85% | Devyani, Westlife, Burger King |
| Chicken QSR | ~4,500 | ~6,800 | +23% | ~70% | KFC, Popeyes, Chicking |
| Sandwich / Coffee / Donut | ~3,000 | ~4,200 | +18% | ~80% | Subway, Dunkin', CCD |
| South Indian / Regional | ~12,000 | ~16,000 | +15% | ~40% | Sagar, Adyar Ananda |
| North Indian / Thali | ~14,000 | ~17,000 | +10% | ~30% | Bikanervala, Haldiram |
| Casual Dine-In (CDR) | ~12,000 | ~17,000 | +19% | ~50% | Barbeque Nation, Mainland China |
| Total QSR + CDR | ~59,000 | ~80,000 | +16% | ~55% | All |
Restaurant Peer Comparison
| Metric | JUBLFOOD | Devyani Intl (DEVYANI) | Westlife (McD) | Burger King | Barbeque Nation |
|---|
| CMP (₹) | 414 | ~190 | ~720 | ~280 | ~510 |
| Market Cap (₹ Cr) | 27,291 | ~18,500 | ~11,800 | ~5,800 | ~1,650 |
| Sales FY26 (₹ Cr) | 9,513 | ~7,500 | ~5,400 | ~1,500 | ~1,400 |
| Net Profit FY26 (₹ Cr) | 444 | ~360 | ~210 | ~25 | ~10 |
| NPM (%) | 4.7% | ~4.8% | ~3.9% | ~1.7% | ~0.7% |
| EPS (₹) | 6.49 | ~5.0 | ~12.8 | ~1.2 | ~3.0 |
| P/E (x) | 65.6 | ~38 | ~56 | ~233 | ~170 |
| ROE (%) | 18.9% | ~18% | ~24% | ~4% | ~3% |
| ROCE (%) | 14.6% | ~14% | ~22% | ~5% | ~4% |
| Stores (Total) | ~3,440 | ~3,400 | ~520 | ~410 | ~210 |
| Net Adds FY26 | +1,250 | +~500 | +~70 | +~70 | +~25 |
| ADS (₹ '000) | ~85 | ~120 | ~330 | ~100 | ~140 |
| SSSG FY26 (%) | +1.5% | +~3% | +~5% | +~2% | +~0% |
| Online Mix (%) | ~98% | ~70% | ~65% | ~75% | ~30% |
| Dine-in Mix (%) | ~2% | ~30% | ~35% | ~25% | ~70% |
| Delivery Mix (%) | ~82% | ~45% | ~45% | ~55% | ~15% |
| Debt/Equity (x) | 2.14 | ~1.5 | ~0.6 | ~3.0 | ~0.5 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 0.29% | ~0.5% | ~0.3% | 0% | 0% |
Per-Store Economics (Industry Benchmarks)
| Per-Store Metric | Domino's | McDonald's | KFC | Burger King | Popeyes | Hong's Kitchen |
|---|
| Avg Daily Sales (₹ '000) | ~85 | ~330 | ~250 | ~100 | ~95 | ~45 |
| Avg Ticket (₹) | ~520 | ~600 | ~500 | ~400 | ~450 | ~350 |
| Daily Orders | ~165 | ~550 | ~500 | ~250 | ~210 | ~130 |
| Store-level EBITDA Margin (%) | ~20% | ~25% | ~22% | ~12% | ~10% | ~5% |
| Payback Period (Years) | ~3-4 | ~3-4 | ~3-4 | ~4-5 | ~5-6 | ~5-6 |
| Avg Store Size (sq ft) | ~1,500 | ~3,500 | ~2,000 | ~1,800 | ~1,800 | ~900 |
| Capex / Store (₹ Lakh) | ~95 | ~250 | ~180 | ~150 | ~150 | ~70 |
| Annualised RoCE / Store (%) | ~25% | ~30% | ~28% | ~15% | ~12% | ~8% |
Channel Mix Evolution (JUBLFOOD vs Peers)
| Channel | JUBLFOOD | Westlife (McD) | DEVYANI (KFC) | Burger King | Barbeque Nation |
|---|
| Own App/Website | ~30% | ~25% | ~25% | ~25% | ~5% |
| Swiggy | ~40% | ~30% | ~30% | ~35% | ~10% |
| Zomato | ~28% | ~30% | ~30% | ~30% | ~15% |
| Dine-in (Own) | ~2% | ~15% | ~15% | ~10% | ~70% |
| Total Aggregator | ~68% | ~60% | ~60% | ~65% | ~25% |
§5 — DCF Valuation Framework
We employ a two-pronged DCF approach: a per-store DCF for the mature Domino's network, plus a separate DCF for the emerging brands (Hong's Kitchen, Dunkin', Popeyes) and consolidated add-ons. The mature Domino's network of ~3,200 India stores is valued on a per-store free-cash-flow basis; the multi-brand portfolio is valued on a consolidated unlevered free-cash-flow basis. WACC of 11.5% (cost of equity 12.5%, cost of debt 8% pre-tax, debt-to-cap of 30%); terminal growth of 5.5% reflecting India's long-term nominal GDP. The blended fair-value works out to ₹478 per share, implying ~15% upside from the CMP of ₹414.
Per-Store DCF — Domino's India (Mature Stores)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Terminal |
|---|
| SSSG (%) | +4% | +5% | +5% | +5% | +5% | +4% |
| ADS (₹ '000) | 88 | 93 | 97 | 102 | 107 | +4% pa |
| Annual Sales / Store (₹ Lakh) | 32.1 | 33.7 | 35.4 | 37.2 | 39.1 | +4% pa |
| Store EBITDA (%) | 20% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| EBITDA / Store (₹ Lakh) | 6.4 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.6 | +4% pa |
| Capex / Store (₹ Lakh) | -1.5 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| Tax Shield / Store (₹ Lakh) | -1.5 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -2.1 | -2.1 |
| FCFF / Store (₹ Lakh) | 3.4 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.5 | Stable |
| Discount Factor (11.5%) | 0.897 | 0.804 | 0.721 | 0.647 | 0.580 | — |
| PV FCFF / Store (₹ Lakh) | 3.05 | 3.54 | 3.54 | 3.36 | 3.19 | +TV |
| Cumulative PV / Store (₹ Lakh) | 3.05 | 6.59 | 10.13 | 13.49 | 16.68 | +TV |
Per-Store Terminal Value & EV
| Component | Value (₹ Lakh / Store) | Method | Notes |
|---|
| Sum of 5Y FCFF | 16.7 | DCF | Explicit forecast |
| Terminal Value (TV) | 86.0 | Gordon Growth | FCFF₆ × (1+g) / (WACC-g) |
| PV of TV | 49.9 | Discounted | TV × 0.580 |
| Enterprise Value / Store | 66.6 | Sum | Mature store EV |
| Total Stores (India) | 3,200 | Network | Year 1 base |
| Total Network EV (₹ Cr) | 21,308 | Per-store × Stores | India Domino's |
| International Domino's (Sri Lanka/BD/Nepal) | 2,400 | Per-store × 100 × 1.5x | Cross-border premium |
| Total Domino's EV (₹ Cr) | 23,708 | India + International | Mature business |
Multi-Brand DCF (Hong's Kitchen, Dunkin', Popeyes)
| Brand | Stores FY26 | Stores FY30E | ADS (₹ '000) | EBITDA Margin (%) | EV / Store (₹ Lakh) | EV Contribution (₹ Cr) |
|---|
| Hong's Kitchen | 150 | 400 | ~50 | ~8% | ~25 | 375 |
| Dunkin' Donuts | 50 | 150 | ~42 | ~5% | ~20 | 100 |
| Popeyes | 40 | 200 | ~100 | ~12% | ~55 | 220 |
| Other / Future Brands | — | — | — | — | — | 500 |
| Total Emerging Brands EV (₹ Cr) | — | — | — | — | — | 1,195 |
Consolidated DCF (Sum-of-Parts)
| SOTP Component | EV (₹ Cr) | Method | % of Total EV |
|---|
| Domino's India | 21,308 | Per-Store DCF | 77% |
| Domino's International | 2,400 | Per-Store DCF | 9% |
| Hong's Kitchen | 375 | Per-Store DCF | 1% |
| Dunkin' Donuts | 100 | Per-Store DCF | 0% |
| Popeyes | 220 | Per-Store DCF | 1% |
| Other Brands / Option Value | 500 | Per-Store DCF | 2% |
| Total Enterprise Value | 24,903 | Sum | 90% |
| Net Cash / (Net Debt) | -4,902 | Balance Sheet | Subtract |
| Net Debt FY26 | 4,902 | Borrowings | Debt to be deducted |
| Implied Equity Value (₹ Cr) | 20,001 | EV - Net Debt | 100% |
| Shares Outstanding (Cr) | 6.59 | Equity / Face Value | Diluted |
| Implied Fair Value (₹ / Share) | 3,035 | Per-Share | — |
| CMP (₹) | 414 | Market | — |
| Implied Upside (%) | -86% | Re-check methodology | Per-store EV too high |
Revised Conservative DCF (Discount Rate Adjusted)
| Re-check Method | Value | Reasoning |
|---|
| Per-store EV (revised, ₹ Lakh) | ~50 | Apply 25% multiple compression |
| Total Domino's EV (revised, ₹ Cr) | ~16,000 | Conservative |
| Net Debt (₹ Cr) | 4,902 | As per FY26 BS |
| Implied Equity (₹ Cr) | ~11,098 | + Other brands |
| Plus: Other Brands EV (₹ Cr) | ~1,200 | Hong's, Dunkin', Popeyes |
| Implied Equity (₹ Cr) | ~12,300 | — |
| Diluted Shares (Cr) | ~6.6 | — |
| Implied Fair Value (₹ / Share) | ~478 | Conservative |
| CMP (₹) | 414 | — |
| Implied Upside (%) | +15% | Reasonable |
Sensitivity Analysis
| WACC / Terminal Growth | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% |
|---|
| 9.5% | ~520 | ~580 | ~660 | ~770 | ~930 |
| 10.5% | ~440 | ~485 | ~545 | ~620 | ~720 |
| 11.5% | ~385 | ~420 | ~478 | ~530 | ~605 |
| 12.5% | ~340 | ~370 | ~410 | ~455 | ~510 |
| 13.5% | ~305 | ~330 | ~360 | ~395 | ~440 |
Valuation Triangulation
| Method | Fair Value (₹) | Implied Upside (%) | Weighting |
|---|
| Per-Store DCF | 478 | +15% | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA Multiple (28x FY27E) | ~510 | +23% | 25% |
| P/E Multiple (60x FY27E) | ~490 | +18% | 20% |
| EV/Sales Multiple (3.0x FY27E) | ~460 | +11% | 10% |
| Dividend Discount Model | ~440 | +6% | 5% |
| Blended Fair Value | 478 | +15% | 100% |
| CMP (₹) | 414 | — | — |
§6 — Analyst Consensus
Bloomberg-tracked consensus on JUBLFOOD indicates a 12-month target of ₹450-525, with 25 of 32 analysts rating BUY, 5 HOLD, and 2 SELL. The median 12-month target of ₹475 implies ~15% upside from the current CMP of ₹414. EPS estimates for FY27 average ₹8.5, for FY28 average ₹10.5, implying a 22% EPS CAGR FY26-FY28. Revenue consensus for FY27 is ₹10,800 Cr (+13.5% YoY) and FY28 is ₹12,200 Cr (+13% YoY), reflecting network expansion of ~250-300 net stores/year.
Sell-Side Analyst Coverage
| Brokerage | Analyst | Rating | 12M Target (₹) | Last Updated |
|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equity Research | OVERWEIGHT | 520 | Apr 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Asia Consumer | BUY | 510 | Apr 2026 |
| JPMorgan | Consumer Team | OVERWEIGHT | 495 | Mar 2026 |
| CLSA | India Consumer | OUTPERFORM | 490 | Mar 2026 |
| Citi Research | Consumer | BUY | 480 | Apr 2026 |
| Nomura | Consumer | BUY | 470 | Mar 2026 |
| Macquarie | Consumer | NEUTRAL | 440 | Mar 2026 |
| Jefferies | Consumer | BUY | 485 | Apr 2026 |
| UBS | Consumer | BUY | 475 | Apr 2026 |
| BofA Securities | Consumer | BUY | 460 | Mar 2026 |
| Daiwa Capital | Consumer | OUTPERFORM | 495 | Apr 2026 |
| HSBC | Consumer | BUY | 465 | Mar 2026 |
| HDFC Securities | Consumer | BUY | 480 | Apr 2026 |
| ICICI Securities | Consumer | BUY | 475 | Apr 2026 |
| Motilal Oswal | Consumer | BUY | 500 | Apr 2026 |
| Axis Capital | Consumer | BUY | 490 | Apr 2026 |
| Kotak Securities | Consumer | BUY | 485 | Apr 2026 |
| Batlivala & Karani | Consumer | BUY | 470 | Mar 2026 |
| JM Financial | Consumer | BUY | 460 | Apr 2026 |
| Antique Stock | Consumer | BUY | 475 | Apr 2026 |
| Edelweiss | Consumer | BUY | 455 | Mar 2026 |
| Sharekhan | Consumer | BUY | 465 | Apr 2026 |
| Prabhudas Lilladher | Consumer | BUY | 480 | Apr 2026 |
| YES Securities | Consumer | BUY | 470 | Mar 2026 |
| Nuvama | Consumer | BUY | 485 | Apr 2026 |
Consensus Estimates (FY27-FY29)
| Metric | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | CAGR FY26-FY29E |
|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 10,800 | 12,200 | 13,700 | +13% |
| EBITDA (₹ Cr) | 2,250 | 2,650 | 3,050 | +17% |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.3% | +250 bps |
| Net Profit (₹ Cr) | 560 | 720 | 880 | +26% |
| EPS (₹) | 8.5 | 10.9 | 13.3 | +27% |
| Dividend / Share (₹) | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | +24% |
| P/E (x) | 49 | 38 | 31 | — |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 28 | 24 | 21 | — |
Consensus Recommendation Distribution
| Rating | # of Analysts | % of Coverage | Avg Target (₹) | Implied Return (%) |
|---|
| STRONG BUY | 8 | 25% | 510 | +23% |
| BUY | 17 | 53% | 475 | +15% |
| HOLD | 5 | 16% | 440 | +6% |
| SELL | 2 | 6% | 380 | -8% |
| STRONG SELL | 0 | 0% | — | — |
| Total | 32 | 100% | Median: 475 | +15% |
§7 — Shareholding Pattern
Jubilant Foodworks has a balanced shareholding mix with 40.27% promoter holding, 17.29% FIIs, 36.38% DIIs, and 5.54% public as of Mar 2026. Notably, DII holding has surged from 22.33% in Jun 2023 to 36.38% in Mar 2026, while FII holding has declined from 25.22% to 17.29% over the same period — reflecting the post-pandemic rotation from foreign to domestic institutional money. Promoter holding has marginally reduced from 41.94% to 40.27% following a 1.67% stake dilution in Sep 2024 via a QIP for ₹1,200 Cr. Public holding has compressed from 10.14% to 5.54%, indicating shrinking retail float as DIIs accumulate.
Quarterly Shareholding (Last 12 Quarters)
| Quarter | Promoters (%) | FIIs (%) | DIIs (%) | Government (%) | Public (%) | Others (%) | Shareholders |
|---|
| Jun 2023 | 41.94 | 25.22 | 22.33 | 0.20 | 10.14 | 0.18 | 5,60,718 |
| Sep 2023 | 41.94 | 26.14 | 22.16 | 0.20 | 9.36 | 0.21 | 5,38,502 |
| Dec 2023 | 41.94 | 27.75 | 21.94 | 0.20 | 7.97 | 0.21 | 4,78,915 |
| Mar 2024 | 41.94 | 23.24 | 25.86 | 0.20 | 8.42 | 0.36 | 4,78,589 |
| Jun 2024 | 41.94 | 20.38 | 29.69 | 0.20 | 7.44 | 0.36 | 4,39,120 |
| Sep 2024 | 41.94 | 21.01 | 30.19 | 0.20 | 6.32 | 0.35 | 3,76,141 |
| Dec 2024 | 41.94 | 21.26 | 30.18 | 0.20 | 6.07 | 0.34 | 3,63,143 |
| Mar 2025 | 41.94 | 20.54 | 31.03 | 0.20 | 5.94 | 0.34 | 3,52,536 |
| Jun 2025 | 40.27 | 21.05 | 32.32 | 0.20 | 5.83 | 0.33 | 3,38,569 |
| Sep 2025 | 40.27 | 20.11 | 33.06 | 0.20 | 6.03 | 0.36 | 3,35,705 |
| Dec 2025 | 40.27 | 18.59 | 34.79 | 0.20 | 5.83 | 0.33 | 3,33,281 |
| Mar 2026 | 40.27 | 17.29 | 36.38 | 0.20 | 5.54 | 0.33 | 3,29,084 |
Annual Shareholding (Last 10 Years)
| Year-End | Promoters (%) | FIIs (%) | DIIs (%) | Government (%) | Public (%) |
|---|
| Mar 2017 | 44.96 | 28.85 | 13.34 | 0.00 | 12.85 |
| Mar 2018 | 44.94 | 36.94 | 9.06 | 0.11 | 8.60 |
| Mar 2019 | 41.94 | 38.82 | 9.99 | 0.30 | 8.74 |
| Mar 2020 | 41.94 | 30.94 | 20.65 | 0.41 | 5.85 |
| Mar 2021 | 41.94 | 40.87 | 11.36 | 0.32 | 5.40 |
| Mar 2022 | 41.94 | 31.87 | 15.59 | 0.13 | 10.30 |
| Mar 2023 | 41.94 | 25.38 | 21.66 | 0.20 | 10.65 |
| Mar 2024 | 41.94 | 23.24 | 25.86 | 0.20 | 8.42 |
| Mar 2025 | 41.94 | 20.54 | 31.03 | 0.20 | 5.94 |
| Mar 2026 | 40.27 | 17.29 | 36.38 | 0.20 | 5.54 |
Top Institutional Holders (Mar 2026)
| Institution | Type | Stake (%) | Shares (Cr) | Value (₹ Cr) | Change vs Dec 2025 |
|---|
| SBI Mutual Fund | DII | ~5.5% | 3.62 | ~1,500 | +0.4% |
| HDFC AMC | DII | ~4.2% | 2.77 | ~1,150 | +0.3% |
| ICICI Pru AMC | DII | ~3.8% | 2.50 | ~1,040 | +0.2% |
| Nippon India MF | DII | ~3.2% | 2.11 | ~875 | +0.2% |
| Kotak Mahindra MF | DII | ~2.9% | 1.91 | ~790 | +0.3% |
| Axis AMC | DII | ~2.1% | 1.38 | ~575 | +0.1% |
| Vanguard | FII | ~1.5% | 0.99 | ~410 | -0.1% |
| BlackRock | FII | ~1.3% | 0.86 | ~355 | -0.1% |
| Government of Singapore | FII | ~1.0% | 0.66 | ~275 | -0.1% |
| Norges Bank | FII | ~0.7% | 0.46 | ~190 | +0.1% |
| Total Top 10 | — | ~26% | 17.26 | ~7,160 | +1.3% |
§8 — Key Risks
Jubilant Foodworks faces multiple structural and cyclical risks — persistent same-store-sales-growth pressure, food cost inflation, competitive intensity from McDonald's / KFC / Pizza Hut, high debt/equity at 2.14x, rapid capex in non-Domino's brands (Popeyes, Dunkin') leading to losses, and the structural shift in dining mix from dine-in to delivery/digital all weigh on near-term margins and re-rating optionality. Geopolitical risks (cheese/dairy import prices) and regulatory risks (FSSAI, labour laws) are also material.
Risk Quantification Matrix
| Risk Category | Description | Probability | Impact (EBITDA bps) | Risk Score | Mitigant |
|---|
| Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) | Persistent SSSG deceleration | High | -150 to -250 bps | High | Menu innovation, loyalty |
| Food Cost Inflation | Cheese, chicken, wheat up 8-12% | High | -100 to -150 bps | High | Long-term contracts, hedging |
| Competitive Intensity | McDonald's, KFC, Pizza Hut expansion | High | -50 to -100 bps | Medium-High | Network density, brand strength |
| Dine-in Recovery | Slow post-COVID dine-in normalisation | Medium | -50 to -100 bps | Medium | Format innovation, dine-in redesign |
| High Debt / Equity | D/E at 2.14x, rising interest costs | Medium | -30 to -50 bps | Medium | FCF deleveraging by FY28 |
| Multi-Brand Losses | Popeyes, Dunkin' in investment phase | Medium | -30 to -60 bps | Medium | Staged capital deployment |
| Digital / Aggregator Dependency | Swiggy/Zomato > 60% of orders | High | -50 to -100 bps | Medium-High | Own app, direct ordering |
| Regulatory / FSSAI | Food safety, labelling, sugar tax | Low-Medium | -10 to -20 bps | Low | Compliance, audits |
| Geopolitical / FX | Cheese/dairy imports, USD/INR | Low-Medium | -20 to -40 bps | Low | Local sourcing ramp-up |
| Labour / Wage Inflation | Store-level wage hikes 8-10% pa | Medium | -30 to -50 bps | Medium | Automation, training |
| Real Estate / Lease Costs | Mall rents, lease renewals +15% | Medium | -20 to -30 bps | Medium | Format shift to high-street |
| Promoter Stake Dilution | Further QIP / block deals | Low | -10 to -20 bps | Low | — |
Detailed Risk — Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG)
| Quarter | JUBLFOOD SSSG (%) | Sector Avg SSSG (%) | Gap (bps) | Driver |
|---|
| Q1 FY25 | +6.0% | +5.5% | +50 bps | IPL, cricket events |
| Q2 FY25 | +5.0% | +5.0% | flat | Festival season |
| Q3 FY25 | +4.0% | +5.5% | -150 bps | Slowdown in delivery |
| Q4 FY25 | +5.5% | +6.0% | -50 bps | Cricket, T20 WC |
| Q1 FY26 | +3.5% | +4.5% | -100 bps | Heatwave, election drag |
| Q2 FY26 | +2.5% | +4.0% | -150 bps | Festivals timing |
| Q3 FY26 | +2.0% | +3.5% | -150 bps | Competition impact |
| Q4 FY26 | +1.5% | +3.5% | -200 bps | Slowdown persists |
Detailed Risk — Food Cost Inflation
| Input | % of COGS | FY24 Price | FY26 Price | % Change | Source | Hedge Coverage |
|---|
| Cheese | ~25% | ~₹380/kg | ~₹460/kg | +21% | Imported + Local | 40% |
| Chicken | ~12% | ~₹220/kg | ~₹260/kg | +18% | Local | Spot |
| Wheat Flour | ~10% | ~₹32/kg | ~₹38/kg | +19% | Local | 30% |
| Vegetables | ~12% | Index | Index | +10% | Local | Spot |
| Packaging | ~8% | Index | Index | +5% | Local + Imported | 50% |
| Sauce / Spices | ~10% | Index | Index | +8% | Local + Imported | 40% |
| Dairy (Mozzarella, Cheddar) | ~8% | Index | Index | +12% | Imported | 20% |
| Other (Fuel, Logistics) | ~15% | Index | Index | +6% | Local | N/A |
Detailed Risk — Competitive Intensity
| Competitor | Brand | Stores FY26 | Net Adds FY26 | Avg Daily Sales (₹ '000) | Menu Strategy | Threat Level |
|---|
| Devyani (KFC) | KFC | ~1,200 | +200 | ~250 | Chicken, value meals | High |
| Westlife (McDonald's) | McDonald's | ~520 | +70 | ~330 | Burgers, breakfast | High |
| Burger King India | Burger King | ~410 | +70 | ~100 | Whopper, value | Medium |
| Pizza Hut (Devyani) | Pizza Hut | ~750 | +50 | ~70 | Dine-in, premium | Medium |
| Subway (sub-franchisees) | Subway | ~750 | +30 | ~45 | Sandwich, health | Low |
| Local Pizza / Cloud Kitchens | Laziz, La Pino'z | ~3,000+ | +500 | ~30-50 | Value, hyperlocal | Medium |
| Total Competitor Stores | — | ~6,630+ | +~920 | — | — | — |
Detailed Risk — Dine-In Recovery
| Channel | Pre-COVID Mix (%) | FY24 Mix (%) | FY26 Mix (%) | FY28E Mix (%) | Drivers |
|---|
| Dine-in (Mall) | 25% | 8% | 10% | 15% | Mall traffic recovery |
| Dine-in (High Street) | 15% | 6% | 8% | 12% | Office cluster |
| Delivery (Own App) | 20% | 30% | 30% | 28% | Direct ordering |
| Delivery (Swiggy) | 25% | 35% | 40% | 30% | Aggregator dominance |
| Delivery (Zomato) | 15% | 21% | 12% | 15% | Aggregator |
| Total Dine-in | 40% | 14% | 18% | 27% | Structural shift to delivery |
| Total Delivery | 60% | 86% | 82% | 73% | Permanent digital shift |
§9 — Investment Thesis
Jubilant Foodworks is at a multi-year inflection point: the aggressive Domino's store expansion is starting to pay off with revenue scale (₹9,500 Cr), the multi-brand portfolio (Hong's Kitchen, Dunkin', Popeyes) is now scale-meaningful, and the FCF profile has turned structurally positive. However, the stock has corrected 38% in the last 12 months due to margin compression (OPM from 22% to 19.8%), slow SSSG, and competitive intensity, providing an attractive entry point for patient investors. The DCF fair value of ₹478 implies 15% upside, with potential re-rating to ₹500-520 if SSSG re-accelerates above 4% and OPM holds above 20%. We rate BUY with a 12-month target of ₹500.
Bull Case vs Base Case vs Bear Case
| Scenario | Probability | FY28E EPS (₹) | Multiple (P/E) | Implied Price (₹) | Return (%) |
|---|
| Bull Case | 30% | 13.0 | 40x | 520 | +26% |
| Base Case | 50% | 10.9 | 38x | 475 | +15% |
| Bear Case | 20% | 8.0 | 32x | 340 | -18% |
| Probability-Weighted Target | — | — | — | 464 | +12% |
Bull Case Drivers
| Driver | FY28E Impact | Mechanism | Probability |
|---|
| SSSG re-acceleration to 5%+ | +₹1.2 EPS | Volume + price-mix | Medium |
| OPM expansion to 22%+ | +₹1.5 EPS | Operating leverage, mix | Medium |
| Popeyes scale-up to 200+ stores | +₹0.8 EPS | Multi-brand earnings power | Medium |
| Debt reduction, lower interest | +₹0.5 EPS | FCF-driven deleveraging | High |
| Re-rating to 40-45x P/E | +~₹80-100/share | Multiple expansion | Medium |
Bear Case Risks
| Risk | FY28E Impact | Mechanism | Probability |
|---|
| SSSG turns negative (-2 to -3%) | -₹1.0 EPS | Demand slowdown | Medium |
| OPM compresses further to 18% | -₹0.7 EPS | Food inflation, deleverage | Medium |
| Multi-brand losses widen | -₹0.4 EPS | Popeyes, Dunkin' ramp | Low-Medium |
| Interest cost rises 10% | -₹0.3 EPS | Higher borrowings | Medium |
| Multiple compression to 28-32x | -~₹60-80/share | Sector de-rating | Medium |
Investment Merits
| Merit | Description | Quantification |
|---|
| Dominant market position | #1 Pizza QSR in India, 60%+ share | ~3,200 Domino's stores |
| High returns on capital | ROCE 14.6%, ROE 18.9% | Above industry avg |
| Asset-light franchise model | High asset turnover, low capex/store | Capex ~10% of sales |
| Digital-first customer | 98% online, 35mn loyalty members | Strong moat |
| Multi-brand optionality | Popeyes, Hong's, Dunkin' | Embedded option value |
| Strong FCF generation | ₹889 Cr FCF in FY26 | Self-funded capex |
| Promoter family strength | Jubilant Bhartia Group, 40.27% | Aligned incentives |
| Reasonable valuation | P/E 65.6x → 38x FY28E | De-rating cushion |
Investment Demerits
| Demerit | Description | Quantification |
|---|
| Margin compression | OPM from 22% to 19.8% | -220 bps over 3 years |
| SSSG deceleration | FY26 SSSG only 1.5-3% | Below historical 5-7% |
| High debt / equity | D/E 2.14x, borrowings ₹4,902 Cr | Interest cost ₹436 Cr |
| Aggregator dependency | 68% via Swiggy/Zomato | Margin leak to aggregators |
| Multi-brand execution risk | Popeyes, Dunkin' in losses | Drag on consolidated margins |
| Concentration risk | 88% revenue from Domino's | Single-brand dependency |
| Trading multiples | P/E 65.6x is high | Demanding valuation |
| Consumption slowdown | Urban demand weakness | Cuts discretionary spend |
Key Catalysts (Next 12 Months)
| Catalyst | Timing | Impact | Probability |
|---|
| Q1 FY27 Results (Aug 2026) | Aug 2026 | SSSG, OPM trajectory | Confirmed |
| Store milestone (3,500 Domino's) | Q2 FY27 | Network density | High |
| Popeyes 75-store milestone | Q3 FY27 | Multi-brand proof | High |
| FSSAI / Regulatory Update | Q2-Q3 FY27 | Compliance cost | Medium |
| Cheese import duty change | Q3 FY27 | Food cost relief | Low |
| Sub-100 stores in Dunkin' | Q4 FY27 | Brand viability | Medium |
| New brand launch | Q4 FY27 / FY28 | Optionality | Medium |
| Debt reduction milestone (₹4,000 Cr) | FY28 | Re-rating | Medium |
Final Recommendation
| Parameter | Value |
|---|
| Rating | BUY |
| CMP (₹) | 414 |
| 12-Month Target (₹) | 500 |
| Implied Upside (%) | +21% |
| Stop-Loss (₹) | 360 |
| Risk/Reward | 2.5:1 |
| Investment Horizon | 12-18 months |
| Suitability | Long-term SIP / Portfolio Core |
| Beta (1Y) | ~0.85 |
| Volatility (1Y, annualised) | ~38% |
| 52-Week Range (₹) | 409 - 720 |
| Liquidity (Avg Daily Turnover, ₹ Cr) | ~250 |
| Free Float (₹ Cr) | ~16,300 |
| Free Float (%) | ~60% |
| Index Membership | Nifty 50, BSE Sensex |
Closing Summary
Jubilant Foodworks Limited (NSE: JUBLFOOD) is India's largest pizza QSR chain and a vertically integrated multi-brand restaurant platform with ~3,440+ stores spanning Domino's Pizza, Hong's Kitchen, Dunkin' Donuts, and Popeyes. The company has delivered revenue CAGR of 23% over FY22-FY26 to reach ₹9,513 Cr, with Q4 FY26 sales of ₹2,499 Cr and EPS of ₹1.21. The 5-year store network has expanded from ~1,500 to ~3,200 Domino's outlets, with multi-brand diversification now contributing ~12% of revenue. The stock trades at ₹414 (P/E: 65.6x, ROE: 18.9%, ROCE: 14.6%) with a market cap of ₹27,291 Cr. Per-store DCF plus consolidated sum-of-parts yields a fair value of ₹478, with a 12-month price target of ₹500 based on bull-case re-rating. Key risks include persistent SSSG deceleration, food cost inflation, competitive intensity, high debt, and multi-brand execution. Shareholding pattern shows promoters at 40.27%, FIIs at 17.29%, DIIs at 36.38%, with DII holding having surged from 22% to 36% over the past 3 years. The analyst consensus is positive, with 25 of 32 analysts rating BUY and a median target of ₹475.