Indian Stock Market Preview - February 13, 2026

Introduction

Indian equity markets are bracing for a period of cautious consolidation this Friday, February 13, 2026. The domestic sentiment is currently caught in a tug-of-war between a sharp tech-led selloff in the United States and resilient buying from domestic institutions. As the Nifty 50 hovers near the psychological milestone of 26,000, investors are closely monitoring whether the current support levels will hold against a backdrop of global uncertainty regarding artificial intelligence disruption.

For retail investors, today's session is less about aggressive momentum and more about observing key technical pivots. While the GIFT Nifty suggests a relatively muted start, the underlying strength of the Indian banking sector and robust earnings from specific energy and financial majors provide a counterbalance to the volatility seen in global technology stocks. This article provides a comprehensive deep dive into the technical levels, global cues, and stock-specific catalysts that will define today's trading action.

Global Market Overview: The AI Disruption Narrative

US Markets: Sharp Correction in Tech

Wall Street faced a turbulent session on Wednesday, February 12, 2026, as investors grappled with the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence. The primary concern centers on how new AI capabilities might erode the profit margins and established business models of traditional technology giants. The resulting selloff was broad-based but concentrated in the Nasdaq.

This AI-related anxiety is expected to create periodic volatility across global bourses as valuations are reassessed. In India, this sentiment is likely to translate into continued pressure on the Information Technology (IT) sector, which has high exposure to US enterprise spending.

Asian Markets and Commodities

Tracking the weakness from New York, Asian markets are trading lower this morning. Risk appetite has diminished, leading to a flight toward safety assets like gold. Simultaneously, the commodity markets offer a silver lining for the Indian economy. Crude Oil prices have declined significantly due to increased supply forecasts and a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums.

• WTI Crude: Closed at $62.84 - $62.85 per barrel (Down 2.77%).
• Brent Crude: Trading near $68.61 per barrel.
• USD/INR: Trading in a stable range of 90.17 - 90.78.

Lower oil prices are historically favorable for India as they reduce the national import bill and help contain imported inflation pressures.

Pre-Market Indicators: GIFT Nifty Analysis

The GIFT Nifty serves as the primary early-morning indicator for the Nifty 50. As of 7:28 AM IST on February 13, 2026, it was trading at 25,710.5, reflecting an increase of 26 points (+0.10%).

Data suggests that while there was an initial panic during the night session—where GIFT Nifty slumped to 25,677 (down 174 points)—the recovery to 25,710 indicates that traders are adopting a more measured view. This points toward a flat to marginally lower opening for the Indian indices, likely in the 25,650 - 25,750 range.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Nifty 50: Consolidation Near Resistance

The Nifty 50 closed the previous session at 25,953.85, up 0.07%. However, the formation of a bearish candle near the 26,000 resistance suggests that profit-booking is active at higher levels. The index is currently in a healthy consolidation phase, building a base before its next major move.

Technical Support & Resistance for Nifty 50:

With the India VIX up 1.54% at 11.73, volatility remains relatively low but is showing signs of a slight uptick, warranting a cautious stance for intraday traders.

Bank Nifty: Resilience and Range-Bound Action

The Bank Nifty has shown relative strength, closing at 60,745.35 (+0.20%). While it is outperforming the broader market, it has formed a small-bodied candle, reflecting a lack of decisive directional commitment.

Technical Support & Resistance for Bank Nifty:

Expert analysis suggests that a decisive move above 61,000 is required to trigger a fresh rally toward 61,800 - 62,400.

Sensex Outlook

The Sensex ended at 84,233.64, down 0.05%. Based on current cues, it is expected to open in the 84,100 - 84,400 range.

• Immediate Support: 83,820 - 83,580
• Major Support: 83,133 - 82,446
• Immediate Resistance: 84,400 - 84,600

Options Market & Institutional Activity

Options Data Insights

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) for the Nifty stands at 0.82, which is below the neutral 1.0 mark. This indicates significant call writing (bearish bets), suggesting that market participants are hedging against potential downside while capping their upside expectations.

• Max Pain Level: 25,807 (Nifty tends to gravitate toward this price point near expiry).
• Call Open Interest (OI): Highest at 26,000 strike (1.65 - 1.70 crore contracts).
• Put Open Interest (OI): Highest at 25,800 strike (61.41 - 64.9 lakh contracts).

FII and DII Flow Analysis

There is a notable divergence between foreign and domestic institutions. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned heavy sellers on February 12, offloading Rs 4,561.43 crore in the cash segment and over Rs 9,293 crore in derivatives.

Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided a crucial stabilizing cushion by net buying Rs 3,594.13 crore. This counter-cyclical support is a key reason why Indian markets haven't seen a sharper correction despite global headwinds.

Sectoral Deep Dive

1. Information Technology: The AI Overhang

The IT sector is currently under pressure, with the index sliding nearly 5% in the previous session. Concerns over enterprise spending and AI disruption have impacted majors like TCS (down 2.51% to Rs 2,909.40) and Infosys (down 1.75% to Rs 1,472.40).

2. Banking & Financials: Leading the Charge

Private sector banks are showing leadership. SBI gained 3.40% to reach Rs 1,183.00, and ICICI Bank remains a pivotal stock to watch. Improving asset quality and festive demand continue to support the sector's positive bias.

3. Metals & Mining: Earnings Pressure

Weakness continues in metals due to soft Chinese demand and margin compression. Hindalco saw its Q3 profit crash 45.1% to Rs 2,049 crore, despite revenue growth. Coal India also reported a 15.6% drop in profit.

4. Consumer & FMCG: Defensive Strength

The sector is benefiting from a recovery in rural demand. Honasa Consumer (Mamaearth) reported a stellar 92.9% profit growth, while Britannia and Maruti Suzuki also showed resilience, gaining 2.43% and 1.70% respectively.

Stocks to Watch: February 13, 2026

Positive Catalysts

• ONGC (Rs 276.35): Reported a 22.6% surge in Q3 profit to Rs 11,946.4 crore. Declared an interim dividend of Rs 6.25 per share.
• Muthoot Finance: Exceptional Q3 earnings with profit zooming 94.9% to Rs 2,656.4 crore.
• Engineers India: Profit spiked 219.3% to Rs 347.2 crore, indicating a strong infrastructure capex cycle.
• AU Small Finance Bank: RBI approved the reappointment of Sanjay Agarwal as MD & CEO for 3 years, ensuring leadership continuity.
• J Kumar Infraprojects: Received a Letter of Award (LoA) for a Rs 615.53 crore redevelopment project from NBCC.

Negative Catalysts / Caution

• Coal India (Rs 419.15): Weak results with profit down 15.6% and revenue down 5.2%.
• Hindalco (Rs 964.40): Severe margin compression despite revenue growth; profit fell 45.1%.
• IT Stocks (TCS/Infosys): Continued vulnerability due to global tech weakness.

Corporate Events & Results Calendar

A massive volume of earnings is expected today across various sectors:

• Pharmaceuticals: Ipca Labs, Alkem Labs, Torrent Pharma, Akums Drugs.
• Digital/E-commerce: Brainbees Solutions (Firstcry), Info Edge (Naukri.com), Ola Electric.
• Infrastructure: GMR Airports, Siemens Energy, Inox Wind.
• Ex-Dividend: BEML, MRF, Mazagon Dock, NMDC, Route Mobile.
• SME Listings: PAN HR Solutions and Biopol Chemicals to list on BSE SME.

Trading Strategy for February 13, 2026

For Intraday Traders

• Nifty: Consider a "Buy on Dips" approach near 25,600 - 25,650 with a strict stop loss below 25,550. Target a recovery toward 25,850 - 25,900.
• Bank Nifty: Watch for entries near 60,400 - 60,500. Stop loss should be placed below 60,250, targeting 60,850 - 61,000.
• Sectors: Avoid aggressive exposure to IT and Metals. Focus on defensive FMCG and high-momentum banking names.

For Swing and Positional Traders

• Use any correction toward 25,500 to accumulate quality large-caps with strong Q3 results like ONGC or Muthoot Finance.
• Maintain 20-30% cash reserves to capitalize on tactical opportunities if global volatility intensifies.
• Review sectoral weightage; remain Overweight on Banking (30-35%) and Underweight on IT until the AI narrative stabilizes.

Key Takeaways

• Global Drag: The Nasdaq's 2.0% decline and AI concerns are the primary headwinds for Indian IT stocks today.
• Institutional Tug-of-War: FII selling of Rs 4,561 crore is being largely countered by DII buying of Rs 3,594 crore.
• Support Zones: The 25,600 - 25,700 range remains the critical defense line for the Nifty 50.
• Earnings Leaders: ONGC (+22.6% profit) and Muthoot Finance (+94.9% profit) are top candidates for momentum.
• Commodity Tailwinds: Falling crude oil ($62.84) is a significant positive for India's macro-economic outlook.

What This Means for Investors

Historical trends indicate that market consolidations near psychological peaks like 26,000 are a standard part of price discovery. While the global AI selloff has introduced a new layer of uncertainty for the technology sector, India's domestic growth story—reflected in the 7%+ GDP growth and resilient banking performance—remains intact.

Investors may consider monitoring the India VIX; a spike above 13 could signal deeper short-term corrections. However, as long as the Nifty maintains its 25,500 support (the 20-day EMA), the broader bullish structure remains active. This is a time for selective accumulation rather than broad-market panic.