Indian Stock Market Preview: Wednesday, February 18, 2026

Introduction

Domestic equity benchmarks are set for a steady to positive opening this Wednesday, February 18, 2026, as global cues provide a supportive tailwind for Indian bulls. The GIFT Nifty is currently signaling a moderate gap-up, trading at 25,756.5, which represents a gain of 46.5 points or 0.18% over the Nifty 50's previous close of 25,725.40. This follows a resilient session on Tuesday where the indices recovered sharply from their intraday lows, demonstrating the underlying strength of the domestic market.

For retail investors, the current market environment is characterized by a tug-of-war between persistent Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) selling and aggressive Domestic Institutional Investor (DII) buying. As we head into mid-week, the focus remains on whether the Nifty 50 can decisively breach the 25,800 hurdle to pave the path toward the psychological 26,000 mark. This article provides a deep dive into technical levels, institutional flows, and the specific corporate developments that will drive price action today.

Global Market Cues: A Backdrop of Cautious Optimism

US Markets Maintain Steady Upward Trajectory

Wall Street concluded Monday's session with incremental gains, providing a stable foundation for global sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.1% to finish at 49,533.19, while the broader S&P 500 also advanced 0.1% to reach 6,843.22. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite mirrored this performance, gaining 0.1% to close at 22,578.38.

These modest gains reflect a market that is pricing in a 'soft landing' scenario for the US economy. Crucially, the stabilization in US technology stocks, fueled by strategic Artificial Intelligence (AI) partnerships, is a positive lead for the Indian IT sector, which has faced valuation concerns in recent months.

Mixed Sentiment in Asia Amid Holiday Closures

Asian markets displayed a fragmented performance in early trade on February 18. Japan's Nikkei 225 witnessed a decline of 0.94%, primarily due to profit-taking following a strong recent rally. Conversely, trading volumes across the region remain thin as major exchanges in Hong Kong and Mainland China remain closed for the extended Lunar New Year holiday. This reduced regional liquidity means Indian markets may rely more heavily on domestic fundamentals and GIFT Nifty indications throughout the day.

Commodity and Currency Outlook

Crude Oil Prices: Oil prices have retreated to two-week lows, a highly favorable development for India's macroeconomic stability. WTI Crude settled at $62.33 per barrel (down 0.9%), while Brent Crude fell 1.8% to $67.42. This decline is attributed to diplomatic progress regarding the Iranian nuclear talks and potential peace frameworks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As an importer of over 80% of its oil, India stands to benefit through lower inflation and a reduced Current Account Deficit (CAD).

Currency Stability: The Indian Rupee (INR) remains remarkably stable, trading at 90.637 against the US Dollar. With a narrow trading range of 90.593 to 90.640, the currency's resilience continues to support foreign investor confidence in India's sovereign credit profile.

Technical Analysis: Critical Levels for the Day

Nifty 50 Technical Outlook

The Nifty 50 closed at 25,725.40 on February 17, staging a notable 200-point recovery from its daily lows. Technically, the index has filled the price gap between 25,630 and 25,752. By sustaining above its 21-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the short-term trend remains positive.

Pivot Point Analysis: The daily pivot for Nifty is identified at 25,725. Resistance levels beyond the pivot are noted at 25,761, 25,807, and 25,881, while supports lie at 25,613, 25,567, and 25,493.

Bank Nifty Technical Outlook

Bank Nifty outperformed the broader market, closing at 61,174.00 with a gain of 0.37%. It remains positioned above its 10, 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs, signaling a strong bullish configuration.

Institutional Flow Analysis

The market structure is currently defined by the diverging strategies of domestic and foreign institutions. While FIIs have been net sellers over the last five sessions, DIIs have more than compensated for the outflow.

5-Day Institutional Activity (₹ Crore)

Historical Insight: The massive selling by FIIs on February 13 (₹7,395.41 crore) appears to be an outlier or rebalancing event, but the aggressive buying by DIIs (₹5,553.96 crore) on the same day highlights the deep liquidity and confidence within the domestic investor base.

Options Market Analysis

Nifty Options Data

• Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Currently at 1.12, suggesting a slightly bullish sentiment as put writers are active, indicating a perceived floor in the market.
• Max Call Open Interest (Resistance): The 26,000 strike holds 89.34 lakh contracts, marking it as the definitive ceiling for the current series.
• Max Put Open Interest (Support): The 25,000 strike holds 73.83 lakh contracts, providing a strong long-term psychological base.

Bank Nifty Options Data

• The 60,000 Strike: Interestingly, both the highest Call OI (14.1 lakh) and Put OI (25.48 lakh) are concentrated at the 60,000 level. This indicates that 60,000 has transitioned from resistance to a formidable support level.

Stocks to Watch: February 18, 2026

1. Infosys (₹1,391.20): The IT giant is in focus after unveiling its "AI-first" value framework, targeting a $300-400 billion market. Its partnership with Anthropic is viewed as a strategic moat against AI disruption. Recommendation: Buy on dips.
2. Dilip Buildcon: The company has been declared the L-1 (lowest) bidder for two projects worth ₹668.02 crore and ₹702 crore. Additionally, its technology tie-up with OpenAI for construction management is a key differentiator. Recommendation: Breakout watch.
3. Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL): Secured a significant order from SAIL for a captive power plant at the IISCO Steel Plant, valued between ₹1,200 crore and ₹1,500 crore. Recommendation: Buy on dips.
4. Bharti Airtel: Its subsidiary, Airtel Money, has received RBI registration as a Type II Non-Deposit accepting NBFC, allowing it to aggressively expand its fintech and digital lending footprint. Status: News-driven momentum.
5. Metals (Vedanta, Hindalco, JSW Steel, Tata Steel): These stocks are likely to react to news of the Trump administration's plans to roll back steel and aluminum tariffs. This could create volatility in export-led earnings. Status: Caution warranted.
6. Cochin Shipyard: The stock surged 7% recently after emerging as the lowest bidder for a massive ₹5,000 crore order. Recommendation: Monitor for volume-led breakout.
7. Ola Electric: The stock is under pressure after Citi slashed its target price by 51% and issued a 'Sell' rating, citing execution risks and rising competition. Recommendation: Avoid until technical stabilization.
8. Dabur India: Leadership transition news, with Herjit S Bhalla appointed as CEO for India Business. Markets will monitor for any changes in FMCG distribution strategy. Status: News-driven.
9. HAL & Defense Stocks: Hindustan Aeronautics turns ex-dividend today. The sector is also buoyed by the upcoming Macron-Modi summit which may include discussions on additional Rafale fighter jet acquisitions.
10. Dividend Plays: Coal India, ONGC, and Oil India all trade ex-dividend on February 18. Coal India has declared an interim dividend of ₹5.50 per share.

Events Calendar: Key Market Drivers

• Macron-Modi Summit: A high-impact event for the Defense and Aerospace sectors. Potential announcements regarding defense manufacturing and procurement could trigger a rally in HAL, BEL, and Bharat Forge.
• Ex-Dividend Adjustments: 22 stocks go ex-dividend today. Retail investors should note that stock prices will technically adjust downward by the dividend amount at the opening bell. Key stocks include Coal India, ONGC, HAL, Torrent Pharma, and IRB Infrastructure.
• Quarterly Earnings: Ace Men Engg Works and Orient Tradelink are scheduled to report their results.
• F&O Ban List: SAIL and Sammaan Capital remain in the ban period. No new positions can be initiated in these counters.

Trading Strategy & Risk Management

Strategy for Nifty 50

• Bullish Scenario: Enter long positions if Nifty sustains above 25,750 for the first 30 minutes. Targets: 25,840 and 25,900. Stop Loss: 25,680.
• Bearish Scenario: If Nifty breaks below 25,640, it may test the 25,600-25,570 zone. Avoid aggressive shorting given the strong DII support.

Strategy for Bank Nifty

• Bullish Bias: Look for long entries above 61,250 for targets of 61,500 and 61,800. Stop Loss: 61,100. Dips toward 60,800 are considered buying opportunities.

Sector Focus

• Overweight: IT (on AI initiatives) and Banking (PSU banks showing relative strength).
• Neutral/Cautious: Metals (due to global tariff uncertainty) and Oil Upstream (ONGC/Oil India) due to falling crude prices.

Risk Assessment

The current risk level is MODERATE. While global cues are green and crude oil is falling, the lack of FII participation and the clustering of open interest at 26,000 suggest that the upside might be capped in the immediate term. Investors should maintain moderate position sizes (2-5% of capital) and use strict stop losses.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• GIFT Nifty Influence: A positive start is expected, but sustainability above 25,780 is crucial for a trend continuation.
• Institutional Balance: DIIs have bought ₹8,546.64 crore in the last five days, effectively neutralizing FII selling of ₹7,245.86 crore.
• Commodity Benefit: Brent Crude at $67.42 is a long-term positive for India's fiscal health and OMCs.
• Option Boundaries: The market is currently defined by a 25,000 - 26,000 range on Nifty.
• Defense Momentum: The French Presidential visit is a critical catalyst for defense sector volatility.

What This Means for Investors

For retail investors, the market is currently in a "buy on dips" phase rather than a "chase the rally" phase. The technical recovery from 25,500 levels suggests that the bulls are protecting the medium-term uptrend. However, the consolidation between 25,600 and 26,000 may last for several sessions as the market digests the FII outflow and global geopolitical shifts.

Long-term investors should view volatility in the metal sector and the oil & gas space as an opportunity to reassess sector allocations. The stability of the Rupee and the declining energy costs provide a strong fundamental floor to Indian equity valuations.