Indian Stock Market Preview: February 23, 2026

Introduction

Indian equity markets are poised for a blockbuster opening this Monday, February 23, 2026, as global cues align in favor of the bulls. Following a resilient performance last week, the Nifty 50 is expected to witness a significant gap-up opening, potentially testing major resistance zones within the first hour of trade. The primary catalyst remains a dramatic rally on Wall Street and a staggering 320-point surge in the GIFT Nifty futures, which currently stand at 25,886.

For retail investors, this week is particularly critical as it leads into the monthly Futures & Options (F&O) expiry scheduled for Tuesday. While the immediate sentiment is bolstered by the US Supreme Court's decision to strike down broad tariffs, underlying volatility remains high. This article provides a comprehensive deep dive into technical levels, institutional flows, and the specific corporate developments that will dictate market movement today.

Global Market Cues: Relief and Resilience

US Markets Performance

Wall Street provided a strong tailwind for global markets on Friday, closing the session with notable gains across all major indices. The rally was largely sparked by the 6-3 decision from the US Supreme Court to invalidate sweeping tariffs previously imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This ruling removed a massive cloud of policy uncertainty that had been hovering over global trade.

However, it is important to note that President Trump has already responded by signing an executive order implementing a 10% global tariff under Section 122, which was later raised to 15% over the weekend. These new measures are set to take effect on February 24, 2026, for a duration of 150 days.

Asian Markets Early Indication

Asian markets have started the week with a positive bias, following the US lead:

• South Korea KOSPI: Opened up 1.7% at 5,886.67, marking its third consecutive winning session. Major tech heavyweights SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics led the charge, rallying over 3% and 2% respectively.
• Hong Kong Hang Seng (Futures): Currently trading at 26,855, up significantly from the previous close of 26,413.35 (+2.19%).
• Australia S&P/ASX 200: Up 0.17% in early trade at 9,045.00.
• Note: Markets in China and Japan remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, which may lead to thinner volumes across the region.

GIFT Nifty and Domestic Opening Range

The GIFT Nifty (formerly SGX Nifty) is signaling a massive start for the Indian indices. With a primary indication of 25,886—a premium of 320 points over the Nifty’s Friday close of 25,571.25—a gap-up of 150-320 points is highly probable.

• Nifty 50 Expected Range: 25,730 – 25,900
• Sensex Expected Range: 83,700 – 84,200

Commodity and Currency Trends

• Crude Oil: WTI Crude prices have surged past $66 per barrel. This movement is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. While this benefits upstream energy companies, it remains a concern for inflation-sensitive sectors like paints and chemicals.
• USD/INR: The Indian Rupee is showing relative strength, trading at 90.72 as of February 23. This is a recovery from the recent peak of 91.19 seen on February 19. A stronger rupee is a tailwind for importers but may act as a drag on IT and Pharma exporters.
• Dollar Index (DXY): The index is rising toward the 98 level, indicating broader strength in the greenback.

Technical Analysis and Key Levels

Nifty 50 Technical Outlook

The Nifty 50 closed at 25,571.25 on Friday. While the index is currently trading below its 50 EMA (25,721), it remains comfortably above its 100 EMA (25,655) and 200 EMA (25,303). This suggests that the primary long-term uptrend remains intact despite short-term consolidation.

Pivot Point Analysis: The daily pivot for Nifty sits at 25,647. Resistance levels are pegged at 25,714 (R1) and 25,822 (R2), while supports are at 25,430 (S1) and 25,363 (S2).

Bank Nifty Technical Outlook

Bank Nifty is exhibiting stronger relative strength, trading near its all-time highs. It closed Friday at 61,172.

• Pivot Point: 61,337
• Critical Resistance: 61,500 and the all-time high of 61,764.85.
• Immediate Support: 60,700 followed by a strong base at 60,500.
• Major Psychological Floor: 60,000 (holding 12.42 lakh Put contracts).

Options Market Analysis: F&O Expiry Special

With the monthly expiry on Tuesday, February 24, the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has improved from 0.70 to 0.98, indicating a shift from bearish to neutral-bullish sentiment.

Nifty Options Data

• Max Pain: 25,500 – 25,600.
• Call Concentration: 26,000 strike holds the maximum Open Interest (1.41 crore contracts), acting as a formidable ceiling.
• Put Concentration: 25,000 strike holds the highest Put OI (1.19 crore contracts), serving as the ultimate support.

Bank Nifty Options Data

• Max Pain: 60,500 – 61,000.
• Strike Highlights: The 62,500 Call has the highest OI at 8.85 lakh contracts, while the 60,000 Put remains the primary floor.

Foreign and Domestic Institutional Activity

A notable divergence continues between FIIs and DIIs. While foreign investors have been cautious due to global tariff uncertainties, domestic institutions have stepped in aggressively to provide a floor.

Institutional Flows (Feb 16 - Feb 20, 2026):

Month-to-Date Summary: FIIs are net sellers of ₹1,077 crores, while DIIs are net buyers of ₹11,474 crores. This strong domestic participation is a sign of market maturity and resilience.

Stocks to Watch on February 23, 2026

Banking and Finance

1. IDFC First Bank (IDFCFIRSTB): High Risk. The bank reported a suspected fraud of ₹590 crores at its Chandigarh branch. Four employees are under investigation. Significant selling pressure is anticipated.
2. ICICI Bank (ICICIBANK): Facing a tax demand of ₹50.38 crores from Maharashtra GST. Impact is expected to be limited given the bank's size.
3. SBI Life Insurance (SBILIFE): Positive. Dividend record date is March 6. Additionally, a GST demand was reduced from ₹288.67 crores to ₹159.45 crores.

Power and Energy

4. NTPC Green Energy (NTPC-GE): Commenced commercial operations of 158.4 MW capacity (part of a 250 MW solar project) in Andhra Pradesh on February 14.
5. NHPC (NHPC): Approved massive investment of ₹5,702.91 crores for hydropower projects in Jammu & Kashmir, including Uri Stage-II and Dulhasti.

Technology and Infrastructure

6. HCL Technologies (HCLTECH): Acquired 100% of Belgian AI startup Wobby BV for €4.5 million (~₹40 crores) to enhance AI capabilities.
7. Adani Ports & SEZ (ADANIPORTS): Signed MoU for an iron ore blending facility and SEZ at Gangavaram Port; capacity to reach 75 MMT.
8. Prestige Estates (PRESTIGE): Investing ₹115 crores over 30 years to co-brand and upgrade the Bellandur Metro Station in Bengaluru.

Others in Focus

9. Cipla (CIPLA): Greece subsidiary received an OAI (Official Action Indicated) status from USFDA. Contrastingly, LIC raised its stake to 9.09%.
10. UPL Ltd (UPL): Reorganizing into "UPL Global," creating the world’s second-largest listed crop protection platform.
11. Vedanta (VEDL): Board meeting on February 25 to consider fund-raising via Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs).
12. Indian Hotels (IHCL): Credit rating upgraded by ICRA to AAA (Stable), the highest investment grade.
13. Hindustan Copper (HINDCOPPER): Received a stay order on a mining demand notice in Jharkhand.
14. PVR INOX (PVRINOX): Launched a new 7-screen multiplex in Hubli, bringing its total screen count to 1,798.
15. BHEL (BHEL): A court order attached ₹55.84 crores from its bank account due to an ongoing construction petition.

Events Calendar: Key Dates for the Week

1. Feb 24 (Tuesday): Monthly F&O Expiry. Expect heightened volatility and rollover activity.
2. Feb 24 (Tuesday): US Tariff Implementation (Section 122). The 15% global tariff takes effect.
3. Feb 23-27: Ongoing India-US trade discussions regarding a potential interim trade pact framework.
4. Feb 27 (Friday): GDP Data Release. The new base year (2022-23) is expected to show an upward revision of at least 16%.
5. Ongoing: Final phase of Q3 Corporate Earnings results.
6. Weekly: Foreign Exchange Reserves update and monthly Infrastructure Output (YoY) data.

Trading Strategy for February 23, 2026

For Intraday Traders

• Strategy: Buy-on-dips. Avoid chasing the initial gap if Nifty opens above 25,900.
• Nifty Entry: Look for long positions if Nifty pulls back to the 25,600 – 25,650 zone.
• Stop Loss: Strict 25,550 (Friday's close).
• Targets: 25,750, 25,850, and 25,950.

For Swing and Positional Traders

• Bias: Bullish above 25,600. Maintain caution if the index fails to hold 25,400.
• Sector Preference: BUY Large-cap Banks, Energy (NTPC, NHPC, Coal India), and Infrastructure (L&T). AVOID IT and export-heavy stocks until trade policy clarity emerges.
• Positional Targets: Investors may accumulate quality names in the 25,000 – 25,500 range for long-term targets of 27,000+.

For Options Traders

• The Play: Deploy an Iron Condor on Nifty. Sell 25,700 CE and 25,400 PE; buy 25,900 CE and 25,200 PE as protection. This captures maximum theta decay on expiry eve.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Positive Momentum: GIFT Nifty indicates a gap-up opening of 160-330 points.
• Critical Support: 25,400 remains the structural floor that must be held for the rally to continue.
• Policy Impact: US Supreme Court relief on tariffs has reduced trade risk, with India's effective exposure dropping from 18% to 9.1%.
• Institutional Backing: DIIs remain the primary engine of the market, injecting over ₹11,400 crores this month.
• Risk Warning: Volatility is expected to remain in the 14-16 range (India VIX) due to the impending F&O expiry.