Nifty Eyes 26,000 Milestone as Dow Hits Historic 50,000: Market Preview for February 9, 2026
Introduction
Indian equity markets are poised for a significant and cautiously optimistic start to the trading week on Monday, February 9, 2026. The domestic sentiment is currently electrified by a series of high-impact global and local developments, most notably the historic milestone of the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing the 50,000 mark for the first time in history. This global risk-on sentiment is further bolstered by the official release of the US-India interim trade agreement framework, which promises to remove significant trade barriers between the two nations.
For retail investors, the opening bell is expected to bring a substantial 'gap-up'—a scenario where the market opens significantly higher than its previous close. Data from the Gift Nifty suggests an opening premium of approximately 191 points, placing the Nifty 50 within striking distance of the psychologically critical 26,000 level. This article provides an exhaustive breakdown of technical structures, derivative data, institutional activity, and specific stock catalysts to help investors navigate this high-momentum session.
Global Market Cues: A Historic Tailwinds
US Markets: The 50,000 Milestone
The US markets delivered a powerhouse performance on Friday, February 7, 2026. The Dow Jones surged 2.48% to settle at an all-time high of 50,145.69. This rally was not isolated, as the S&P 500 climbed 1.97% to 6,954.50, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.16% to 23,058.26.
Key Drivers of US Rally:
- Optimism surrounding the US-India trade framework which removes 25% additional tariffs on Indian goods.
- Federal Reserve commentary suggesting a "patient" approach to future rate hikes.
- Strong corporate earnings across the technology and industrial sectors.
Asian Markets and Gift Nifty
Asian markets have reacted with exuberance to the US lead. Japan's Nikkei 225 rallied nearly 3.9%, while South Korea's Kospi surged approximately 4% in early Monday trade. In the offshore segment, the Gift Nifty is trading near 25,926, indicating that Indian benchmarks will likely reclaim recent losses immediately upon opening.
Commodities and Currency Desk
| Indicator | Value/Trend | Impact on India |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $67.64/barrel (-0.60%) | Positive - Reduces import bill |
| WTI Crude | $65.00 - $66.00/barrel | Positive - Supports OMCs |
| USD/INR | 90.32 - 90.86 | Neutral - Stable currency environment |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 98.50 | Positive - Weakness supports EM inflows |
Technical Analysis: Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty
Nifty 50: The Path to 26,000
The Nifty 50 closed Friday at 25,693.80. Technically, the index is maintaining a Buy-on-Dips structure, holding firmly above its short-term and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
Support and Resistance Levels for Nifty 50:
| Level Type | Target 1 | Target 2 | Target 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Support | 25,550 | 25,400 | 25,250 |
| Resistance | 25,800 | 26,000 | 26,350 |
Technical Commentary: The 25,630 level serves as the daily pivot. As long as the index sustains above the 25,500 psychological support, the medium-term bias remains bullish.
Bank Nifty: Outperformance in Focus
Bank Nifty ended the previous session at 60,121, showing superior relative strength. The sector is buoyed by the RBI's decision to maintain the Repo Rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance, alongside stellar Q3 results from heavyweights like SBI.
Support and Resistance Levels for Bank Nifty:
| Level Type | Target 1 | Target 2 | Target 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Support | 59,700 | 59,500 | 59,000 |
| Resistance | 60,400 | 60,800 | 61,200 |
Derivatives and Volatility: The 'Fear Gauge' Cools
India VIX (Volatility Index)
The India VIX declined 1.87% to settle at 11.94. Over the last week, volatility has crashed by nearly 20%. A VIX reading below 12 is historically conducive for bulls, as it indicates lower hedging costs and a lack of immediate panic among institutional players.
Options Data Insights
- Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Currently at 0.96, indicating a balanced market. This level suggests that traders are not over-leveraged on the long or short side, reducing the risk of a massive 'gamma squeeze' unless 26,000 is breached.
- Max Pain: The level where most option writers stand to gain is 25,700 for the February 10 expiry.
- Open Interest (OI) Concentration:
- Nifty Call Concentration: 1.44 crore contracts at the 26,000 strike.
- Nifty Put Concentration: 1.2 crore contracts at the 25,500 strike.
Institutional Activity: FIIs Turn Buyers
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continue to provide a solid floor to the market, but the recent return of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) as net buyers is the real catalyst for the current leg of the rally.
Recent FII/DII Cash Segment Activity (₹ Crores):
| Date | FII Net Action | DII Net Action |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | +1,950.77 | -1,265.06 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | -2,151.00 | +1,130.00 |
| Feb 2, 2026 | +7,561.40 | Data N/A |
| 5-Day Net | ~+7,140.00 | ~-135.00 |
Note: February Month-to-Date (MTD) DII inflows exceed ₹4,000 crore, highlighting strong domestic liquidity support.
Stocks to Watch: Earnings and News Catalysts
1. State Bank of India (SBI) - Last Close: ₹1,066.40
- Catalyst: Reported a massive 24.5% YoY surge in Q3 net profit to ₹21,028.2 crore.
- Key Levels: Strong support at ₹1,050; Resistance at ₹1,100.
2. Tata Steel (TATASTEEL) - Last Close: ₹197.06
- Catalyst: Q3 profits jumped over 9-fold to ₹2,730.4 crore. The company also announced a ₹515 crore investment in a new facility in Tamil Nadu.
- Outlook: Bullish momentum expected on the back of operational efficiency.
3. ITC Limited (ITC) - Last Close: ₹326.05
- Catalyst: Technical breakout candidate. Consolidating near the ₹330 resistance level with strong delivery volumes in the FMCG space.
4. Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANJEWEL)
- Catalyst: Net profit grew 90.3% to ₹416 crore. The company is expanding into new segments via its subsidiary, KJG Brands.
5. Corporate Actions: PFC & REC
- News: Power Finance Corporation (PFC) has acquired a 52.63% stake in REC, moving toward a strategic merger. This creates a mega-entity in the power financing space.
6. Regulatory Watch: Aurobindo Pharma
- News: US FDA concluded an inspection at its Eugia Pharma facility with 11 observations. Investors should monitor the impact on stock volatility alongside its scheduled Q3 results.
Events Calendar: Key Market Drivers for February 9
- US-India Trade Framework: Official release pre-market. Expect sectors like IT, Textiles, and Auto Components to react positively to tariff removals.
- RBI MPC Assessment: Market continues to digest the 5.25% Repo Rate status quo. Real Estate and NBFCs remain primary beneficiaries.
- Earnings Heavyweights: Results expected today from Zydus Lifesciences, Bata India, GSK Pharma, and Ramco Cements.
- Antitrust Hearing: Supreme Court session on the Meta/WhatsApp case could impact the technology and digital services sentiment.
- Primary Market: IPO subscriptions for Aye Finance and Fractal Analytics open today, testing retail appetite.
Trading Strategy for Monday's Session
For Intraday Traders
- The 30-Minute Rule: Given the expected gap-up of 150-200 points, avoid chasing the market in the first 15 minutes. Wait for a cool-off or a successful test of the 25,750 level.
- Long Entry: Look for buying interest if Nifty dips toward the 25,650 - 25,700 zone. Place a strict Stop Loss (SL) at 25,630.
- Shorting: Only considered if Nifty fails to hold 25,500 on a closing basis.
For Swing and Positional Investors
- Sector Rotation: Focus on Banking and Metals given the earnings beats and trade deal news.
- Risk Management: Maintain a cash reserve of 20-30% to capitalize on potential volatility spikes later in the week.
- Stop Loss Discipline: Positional SL for Nifty longs should be placed at 25,400.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Dow 50k Psychology: The historic US close provides a massive sentiment cushion, making any intraday dip a potential buying opportunity.
- Trade Deal impact: The removal of 25% tariffs is a structural positive for Indian exporters, particularly in the Auto Component and IT Services sectors.
- Volatility remains Low: An India VIX at 11.94 suggests that the 'smart money' is not currently bracing for a crash.
- Earnings Momentum: Profit growth in heavyweights like SBI (up 24.5%) and Tata Steel (up 9x) confirms that the rally is backed by fundamental earnings growth, not just liquidity.
What This Means for Investors
The current market environment reflects a rare alignment of positive global cues and robust domestic fundamentals. While the Nifty P/E ratio of 23.15 suggests valuations are slightly above long-term averages, the accelerating earnings growth (as seen in Q3 results) justifies the premium. Retail investors should focus on Quality over Momentum. Avoid speculative small-caps and stick to companies with proven balance sheet strength. Monitoring the 26,000 resistance on Nifty and 61,000 on Bank Nifty will be critical to determine if this rally has the legs to reach new all-time highs by the end of February.