Indian Stock Market Preview: January 29, 2026
Introduction
The Indian equity markets are entering a pivotal session this Thursday, January 29, 2026, characterized by a blend of cautious optimism and high-stakes domestic catalysts. Following a robust performance on Tuesday where the Nifty 50 gained 167.35 points to close at 25,342.75, market participants are now bracing for the release of the Economic Survey 2025-26. This document, to be tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, serves as the official precursor to the Union Budget and will set the narrative for India's macroeconomic trajectory.
For retail investors, today's session is not merely about index movements but about digesting a massive wave of corporate earnings from heavyweights like ITC, Tata Motors, and Swiggy. While global signals from the US and Asia remain mixed, the domestic setup appears resilient, provided key technical thresholds are maintained. This article provides a comprehensive breakdown of the levels, stocks, and economic triggers that will define the trading day.
Global Market Landscape
US Markets and AI Skepticism
US equity futures are currently trading in the red, signaling a defensive stance among global investors. The primary pressure stems from mixed technology earnings and a growing debate regarding the immediate ROI on Artificial Intelligence (AI) investments. Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve recently held interest rates steady in the 3.5%-3.75% target range, offering stability but lacking a fresh 'dovish' catalyst to propel risk assets.
| Index | Current Value | Change (Points) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Futures | 49,017 | -150.00 | -0.31% |
| S&P 500 Futures | 6,992.50 | -14.75 | -0.21% |
| Nasdaq Futures | 26,120 | -36.25 | -0.14% |
Asian Markets and Currency Movements
Asian markets present a polarized view. While Japan's Nikkei 225 managed a marginal gain of 0.18%, the Topix index slipped by 0.57%. In contrast, South Korea's Kospi surged 1.09%, buoyed by Samsung Electronics reporting a Q4 profit that more than tripled due to robust demand for AI servers and tight memory chip supplies.
- Hang Seng Index Futures: Trading at 27,565, notably below the previous close of 27,826.91.
- US Dollar Index: Currently down 0.07% at 95.110, which may provide some breathing room for the Indian Rupee (INR).
- Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index: Witnessed a decline of 0.2%.
Domestic Market Setup: Nifty and Bank Nifty
Opening Expectations
The domestic indices ended Tuesday's session on a high note, with the Sensex climbing 487.20 points (0.60%) to finish at 82,344.68. Early indicators for Thursday suggest a flat to mildly positive start. While the SGX Nifty is trading at 25,448 (up 30 points or 0.12%), the Gift Nifty range of 25,356-25,390 suggests that the initial upside might be capped by global headwinds.
Technical Analysis: Nifty 50
The Nifty 50 remains in a constructive structural zone as long as it remains above its 200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA). The India VIX has cooled to the 13.50-13.53 range, indicating a reduction in immediate panic, though a drop below 11 is required for absolute bullish conviction.
| Level Type | Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|
| Level 1 | 25,200 (Immediate) | 25,450 (Overhead) |
| Level 2 | 25,170 (200-DMA) | 25,500 (Key Breakout) |
| Level 3 | 25,160 (200-DEMA) | 25,600 (100-DMA) |
| Level 4 | 25,000 (Psychological/Max Put OI) | 26,000 (Max Call OI) |
Technical Analysis: Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty showed a stellar intraday reversal on Tuesday, closing at 59,598.80 (up 0.66%). The index formed a bullish candle with a long lower shadow, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels.
| Level Type | Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|
| Level 1 | 59,500 (Critical) | 59,850-60,000 (Immediate) |
| Level 2 | 59,000-59,200 (Support Band) | 60,300 (Next Target) |
| Level 3 | 59,000-59,100 (50-Day EMA) | 60,600 (Extended Target) |
| Level 4 | 58,811 (Fibonacci Support) | 60,429 (Fibonacci Resistance) |
The Macro Trigger: Economic Survey 2025-26
The most critical event for the day is the tabling of the Economic Survey 2025-26. Prepared by the department of economic affairs under the guidance of Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran, this document provides the analytical foundation for the upcoming Budget.
Investors should monitor the following key metrics in the Survey:
- GDP Growth Projections: Forecasts for FY26 and FY27 will dictate long-term valuation models.
- Fiscal Deficit Targets: Adherence to the consolidation path is crucial for FII confidence.
- Inflation Outlook: Updates on CPI trends and food inflation risks.
- Sectoral Policy Recommendations: Potential reforms in manufacturing, agriculture, and labor.
While the Survey's immediate market impact is often moderate compared to the Budget, it provides essential clues regarding sectoral incentives and tax reform directions.
Corporate Earnings Calendar: January 29, 2026
A heavy earnings calendar today will drive stock-specific volatility across various sectors.
Large-Cap and Heavyweights
- ITC: Focus on FMCG volume growth and the performance of the hotels and agri-business segments.
- Tata Motors: Investors will scrutinize JLR (Jaguar Land Rover) margins and the growth of the domestic EV segment.
- Swiggy: The first major quarterly report since its IPO; competition with Zomato in quick commerce is the central theme.
- Vedanta & Dabur India: Key players in commodities and FMCG respectively.
Other Notable Releases
- Fintech & Banking: Paytm (One 97 Communications) turnaround progress and Canara Bank asset quality.
- Infrastructure & Power: Adani Power, NTPC Green Energy, and REC.
- Consumer Durables: Dixon Technologies, Voltas, and Blue Star.
- Real Estate & Specialized Tech: Prestige Estates, KPIT Technologies, and IEX.
Stocks to Watch Today
| Company Name | Reason for Spotlight | Proposed Action |
|---|---|---|
| ITC | Q3 FY26 Results; focus on cigarette volumes and FMCG. | Earnings play |
| Tata Motors | Q3 FY26 Results; focus on JLR and EV trajectory. | Earnings play |
| Larsen & Toubro | Reported mixed Q3 results; Net profit fell 4.3% to ₹3,215 cr but revenue rose 10.5%. | Buy on dips if price stabilizes |
| Garden Reach | Stellar Q3 results; profit up 73.9% to ₹170.8 cr on 49% revenue growth. | Breakout watch |
| RVNL | Lowest bidder for a ₹1,201.35 cr Northern Railway project. | News-based momentum |
| Axis Bank | Bullish brokerage outlook after a 4% jump post-Q3 results. | Breakout watch |
| SBI Cards | Q3 profit rose 45.2% to ₹556.6 cr, showing strong spending recovery. | Earnings-driven rally |
| GE Vernova T&D | Net profit surged 103.8% to ₹290.8 cr on power infra boom. | Strong buy on breakout |
| Hindustan Zinc | Multi-year highs on silver rally; Vedanta to exercise OFS option. | Profit booking zone |
| Paytm | Critical Q3 results to gauge path to profitability. | Earnings play |
Trading Strategy and Risk Management
For Nifty 50 Traders
- Bullish Scenario: If the index sustains above 25,400, targets of 25,500 and 25,600 become achievable. Maintain a stop loss below 25,300.
- Bearish Scenario: A break below 25,200 could lead to a test of the 200-DMA at 25,170. A breach here could accelerate selling toward 24,900.
For Bank Nifty Traders
- Bullish Scenario: Long positions are viable above 59,600 for targets of 60,000 and 60,300. The 60,000 mark is a massive psychological pivot.
- Bearish Scenario: If the index fails to hold 59,500, expect a slide toward the 50-Day EMA at 59,100.
Options Data
- Nifty: Resistance is anchored at 26,000 (Max Call OI), with a floor at 25,000 (Max Put OI).
- Bank Nifty: The 60,000 strike is the primary battlefield. Traders may consider Iron Condor strategies in the 59,000-60,000 range if consolidation persists.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Maintain Liquidity: Keep 30-40% of your capital in cash to deploy post-Economic Survey or post-Budget if favorable policy shifts occur.
- Sectoral Preference: Focus on Defense (HAL, Garden Reach), Railways (RVNL, Titagarh), and Power Infrastructure where order book visibility is high.
- Exercise Caution in FMCG: Stocks like Tata Consumer and Radico Khaitan have shown recent weakness; wait for a reversal signal.
- Risk Sizing: Individual stock exposure should be limited to 2-3% of capital given the clustering of earnings events.
Conclusion
The market session of January 29, 2026, is likely to be characterized by "wait and watch" sentiment during the morning hours, followed by sharp volatility as the Economic Survey details emerge. While the long-term structure for Indian equities remains positive above the 200-DMA, the immediate trend will depend on whether ITC and Tata Motors can deliver earnings beats to offset global tech-related jitters. Prioritize capital preservation and avoid over-leveraging ahead of the Union Budget on February 1.
This is educational content only. Data suggests historical trends, and investors may consider monitoring these levels, but this is not investment advice. Acknowledge uncertainty in market movements and consult a financial advisor before trading.